Briefing: Why Iran could become the next Iraq
Strategic angle: The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict.
The first Gulf War resulted in a weakened regime in Iraq, which lacked a comprehensive political settlement. This scenario raises concerns about similar outcomes in Iran, where political instability could disrupt regional infrastructure.
If Iran's regime were to weaken further without a robust political framework, the potential for conflict could escalate, affecting not only national governance but also critical infrastructure systems.
The implications for energy and transportation networks in the region could be profound, as instability may lead to disruptions in capacity and throughput, impacting neighboring economies and global markets.